Modelling of Survival Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Under Antiretroviral Therapy in Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital in Kenya

Mengich Kibichii Robert; Ann Mwangi; Gregory Kibet Kerich; Nyakundi Omwando Cornelious

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12

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Modelling of Survival Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Under Antiretroviral Therapy in Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital in Kenya

Mengich Kibichii Robert, Ann Mwangi, Gregory Kibet Kerich, Nyakundi Omwando Cornelious

Published in International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications (Volume 7, Issue 2)

Received: 17 May 2021 Accepted: 2 June 2021 Published: 15 June 2021

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Abstract

Survival modelling is a technique which exploits repeated measures of continuous covariates to predict explanatory variable’s effects on the response factor. The survival modelling helps design interventions in the health sector, which has seen one of its applications in the management of Human Immune Virus/ Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS). However, despite improvement in Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) interventions over the years, the observed disease effects (morbidity, progression and mortality) remain high and varies across geographical borders. This study utilizes survival models to determine the predictors of survival among adult HIV/AIDS patients on ART in Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital (MTRH) Kenya. This is achieved by fitting a Cox proportional hazard regression model to adult HIV/AIDS patients data and determine predictors of survival amongst the study subjects. A retrospective study design was adopted where a target population of 10,038 patients who were on ART and were enrolled between January 2005 and January 2007 were investigated for a ten years follow-up period. The Cox proportional hazard regression model (CPHRM) was fitted to the data using log partial likelihood function. The log rank test and 95% confidence Interval (C.I) were used to analyze the significance of the hazard ratios of each variable. The results showed that HIV severity with unadjusted Hazard Ratio [UHR=0.729, p=0.032], level of education [lower UHR=0.952, p=0.019], and perfect adherence of antiretroviral drugs (ARV) [UHR=0.668, p=0.004] positively influenced patient survival time. Patient’s gender [male UHR=1.633, p< 0.001] showed negative effect on patient survival time. The adjusted hazard ratios for multivariate Cox model were, HIV severity [AHR1.18, p=0.735] age category between 30-40 in reference to age less than 30 [AHR=0.459, p=0.178] and age category above 40 years [AHR=0.644, p=0.447], Body Mass Index (BMI) less than 18.5kg/m² in reference to between 18.5-<25kg/m² [AHR=1.65, p=0.847] and BMI above 25 kg/m² [AHR=0.861, p=0.847], level of education [lower AHR=0.931, p=0.209], patients’ gender [male AHR=1.884, p=0.19] and ARV adherence [perfect AHR=1.393, p=0.498]. In conclusion, HIV severity, level of education, ARV adherence and patients' gender were significant predictors of survival time. In addition, none of the patient's characteristics predicted survival time in the multivariate Cox model. Therefore, this study recommends to the government of Kenya to spearhead the development of policy framework for the provision of regular screening services for the male population to avoid late diagnosis and interventions of HIV/AIDS disease.

Published in	International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications (Volume 7, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12
Page(s)	35-47
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Survival Modeling, Survival Time, Survival Analysis, Censoring Censored Observation

References

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Mengich Kibichii Robert, Ann Mwangi, Gregory Kibet Kerich, Nyakundi Omwando Cornelious. (2021). Modelling of Survival Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Under Antiretroviral Therapy in Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital in Kenya. International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications, 7(2), 35-47. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12

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ACS Style

Mengich Kibichii Robert; Ann Mwangi; Gregory Kibet Kerich; Nyakundi Omwando Cornelious. Modelling of Survival Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Under Antiretroviral Therapy in Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital in Kenya. Int. J. Stat. Distrib. Appl. 2021, 7(2), 35-47. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12

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AMA Style

Mengich Kibichii Robert, Ann Mwangi, Gregory Kibet Kerich, Nyakundi Omwando Cornelious. Modelling of Survival Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Under Antiretroviral Therapy in Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital in Kenya. Int J Stat Distrib Appl. 2021;7(2):35-47. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12,
  author = {Mengich Kibichii Robert and Ann Mwangi and Gregory Kibet Kerich and Nyakundi Omwando Cornelious},
  title = {Modelling of Survival Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Under Antiretroviral Therapy in Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital in Kenya},
  journal = {International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications},
  volume = {7},
  number = {2},
  pages = {35-47},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijsd.20210702.12},
  abstract = {Survival modelling is a technique which exploits repeated measures of continuous covariates to predict explanatory variable’s effects on the response factor. The survival modelling helps design interventions in the health sector, which has seen one of its applications in the management of Human Immune Virus/ Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS). However, despite improvement in Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) interventions over the years, the observed disease effects (morbidity, progression and mortality) remain high and varies across geographical borders. This study utilizes survival models to determine the predictors of survival among adult HIV/AIDS patients on ART in Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital (MTRH) Kenya. This is achieved by fitting a Cox proportional hazard regression model to adult HIV/AIDS patients data and determine predictors of survival amongst the study subjects. A retrospective study design was adopted where a target population of 10,038 patients who were on ART and were enrolled between January 2005 and January 2007 were investigated for a ten years follow-up period. The Cox proportional hazard regression model (CPHRM) was fitted to the data using log partial likelihood function. The log rank test and 95% confidence Interval (C.I) were used to analyze the significance of the hazard ratios of each variable. The results showed that HIV severity with unadjusted Hazard Ratio [UHR=0.729, p=0.032], level of education [lower UHR=0.952, p=0.019], and perfect adherence of antiretroviral drugs (ARV) [UHR=0.668, p=0.004] positively influenced patient survival time. Patient’s gender [male UHR=1.633, p2 in reference to between 18.5-2 [AHR=1.65, p=0.847] and BMI above 25 kg/m2 [AHR=0.861, p=0.847], level of education [lower AHR=0.931, p=0.209], patients’ gender [male AHR=1.884, p=0.19] and ARV adherence [perfect AHR=1.393, p=0.498]. In conclusion, HIV severity, level of education, ARV adherence and patients' gender were significant predictors of survival time. In addition, none of the patient's characteristics predicted survival time in the multivariate Cox model. Therefore, this study recommends to the government of Kenya to spearhead the development of policy framework for the provision of regular screening services for the male population to avoid late diagnosis and interventions of HIV/AIDS disease.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Modelling of Survival Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Under Antiretroviral Therapy in Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital in Kenya
AU  - Mengich Kibichii Robert
AU  - Ann Mwangi
AU  - Gregory Kibet Kerich
AU  - Nyakundi Omwando Cornelious
Y1  - 2021/06/15
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12
T2  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
JF  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
JO  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
SP  - 35
EP  - 47
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2472-3509
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12
AB  - Survival modelling is a technique which exploits repeated measures of continuous covariates to predict explanatory variable’s effects on the response factor. The survival modelling helps design interventions in the health sector, which has seen one of its applications in the management of Human Immune Virus/ Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS). However, despite improvement in Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) interventions over the years, the observed disease effects (morbidity, progression and mortality) remain high and varies across geographical borders. This study utilizes survival models to determine the predictors of survival among adult HIV/AIDS patients on ART in Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital (MTRH) Kenya. This is achieved by fitting a Cox proportional hazard regression model to adult HIV/AIDS patients data and determine predictors of survival amongst the study subjects. A retrospective study design was adopted where a target population of 10,038 patients who were on ART and were enrolled between January 2005 and January 2007 were investigated for a ten years follow-up period. The Cox proportional hazard regression model (CPHRM) was fitted to the data using log partial likelihood function. The log rank test and 95% confidence Interval (C.I) were used to analyze the significance of the hazard ratios of each variable. The results showed that HIV severity with unadjusted Hazard Ratio [UHR=0.729, p=0.032], level of education [lower UHR=0.952, p=0.019], and perfect adherence of antiretroviral drugs (ARV) [UHR=0.668, p=0.004] positively influenced patient survival time. Patient’s gender [male UHR=1.633, p2 in reference to between 18.5-2 [AHR=1.65, p=0.847] and BMI above 25 kg/m2 [AHR=0.861, p=0.847], level of education [lower AHR=0.931, p=0.209], patients’ gender [male AHR=1.884, p=0.19] and ARV adherence [perfect AHR=1.393, p=0.498]. In conclusion, HIV severity, level of education, ARV adherence and patients' gender were significant predictors of survival time. In addition, none of the patient's characteristics predicted survival time in the multivariate Cox model. Therefore, this study recommends to the government of Kenya to spearhead the development of policy framework for the provision of regular screening services for the male population to avoid late diagnosis and interventions of HIV/AIDS disease.
VL  - 7
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Author Information

Mengich Kibichii Robert

Department of Mathematics, Physics and Computing, Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya
Ann Mwangi

Department of Mathematics, Physics and Computing, Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya
Gregory Kibet Kerich

Department of Mathematics, Physics and Computing, Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya
Nyakundi Omwando Cornelious

Department of Mathematics, Physics and Computing, Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya

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APA Style

Mengich Kibichii Robert, Ann Mwangi, Gregory Kibet Kerich, Nyakundi Omwando Cornelious. (2021). Modelling of Survival Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Under Antiretroviral Therapy in Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital in Kenya. International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications, 7(2), 35-47. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12

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ACS Style

Mengich Kibichii Robert; Ann Mwangi; Gregory Kibet Kerich; Nyakundi Omwando Cornelious. Modelling of Survival Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Under Antiretroviral Therapy in Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital in Kenya. Int. J. Stat. Distrib. Appl. 2021, 7(2), 35-47. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12

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AMA Style

Mengich Kibichii Robert, Ann Mwangi, Gregory Kibet Kerich, Nyakundi Omwando Cornelious. Modelling of Survival Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Under Antiretroviral Therapy in Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital in Kenya. Int J Stat Distrib Appl. 2021;7(2):35-47. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12,
  author = {Mengich Kibichii Robert and Ann Mwangi and Gregory Kibet Kerich and Nyakundi Omwando Cornelious},
  title = {Modelling of Survival Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Under Antiretroviral Therapy in Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital in Kenya},
  journal = {International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications},
  volume = {7},
  number = {2},
  pages = {35-47},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijsd.20210702.12},
  abstract = {Survival modelling is a technique which exploits repeated measures of continuous covariates to predict explanatory variable’s effects on the response factor. The survival modelling helps design interventions in the health sector, which has seen one of its applications in the management of Human Immune Virus/ Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS). However, despite improvement in Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) interventions over the years, the observed disease effects (morbidity, progression and mortality) remain high and varies across geographical borders. This study utilizes survival models to determine the predictors of survival among adult HIV/AIDS patients on ART in Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital (MTRH) Kenya. This is achieved by fitting a Cox proportional hazard regression model to adult HIV/AIDS patients data and determine predictors of survival amongst the study subjects. A retrospective study design was adopted where a target population of 10,038 patients who were on ART and were enrolled between January 2005 and January 2007 were investigated for a ten years follow-up period. The Cox proportional hazard regression model (CPHRM) was fitted to the data using log partial likelihood function. The log rank test and 95% confidence Interval (C.I) were used to analyze the significance of the hazard ratios of each variable. The results showed that HIV severity with unadjusted Hazard Ratio [UHR=0.729, p=0.032], level of education [lower UHR=0.952, p=0.019], and perfect adherence of antiretroviral drugs (ARV) [UHR=0.668, p=0.004] positively influenced patient survival time. Patient’s gender [male UHR=1.633, p2 in reference to between 18.5-2 [AHR=1.65, p=0.847] and BMI above 25 kg/m2 [AHR=0.861, p=0.847], level of education [lower AHR=0.931, p=0.209], patients’ gender [male AHR=1.884, p=0.19] and ARV adherence [perfect AHR=1.393, p=0.498]. In conclusion, HIV severity, level of education, ARV adherence and patients' gender were significant predictors of survival time. In addition, none of the patient's characteristics predicted survival time in the multivariate Cox model. Therefore, this study recommends to the government of Kenya to spearhead the development of policy framework for the provision of regular screening services for the male population to avoid late diagnosis and interventions of HIV/AIDS disease.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Modelling of Survival Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Under Antiretroviral Therapy in Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital in Kenya
AU  - Mengich Kibichii Robert
AU  - Ann Mwangi
AU  - Gregory Kibet Kerich
AU  - Nyakundi Omwando Cornelious
Y1  - 2021/06/15
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12
T2  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
JF  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
JO  - International Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications
SP  - 35
EP  - 47
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2472-3509
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsd.20210702.12
AB  - Survival modelling is a technique which exploits repeated measures of continuous covariates to predict explanatory variable’s effects on the response factor. The survival modelling helps design interventions in the health sector, which has seen one of its applications in the management of Human Immune Virus/ Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS). However, despite improvement in Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) interventions over the years, the observed disease effects (morbidity, progression and mortality) remain high and varies across geographical borders. This study utilizes survival models to determine the predictors of survival among adult HIV/AIDS patients on ART in Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital (MTRH) Kenya. This is achieved by fitting a Cox proportional hazard regression model to adult HIV/AIDS patients data and determine predictors of survival amongst the study subjects. A retrospective study design was adopted where a target population of 10,038 patients who were on ART and were enrolled between January 2005 and January 2007 were investigated for a ten years follow-up period. The Cox proportional hazard regression model (CPHRM) was fitted to the data using log partial likelihood function. The log rank test and 95% confidence Interval (C.I) were used to analyze the significance of the hazard ratios of each variable. The results showed that HIV severity with unadjusted Hazard Ratio [UHR=0.729, p=0.032], level of education [lower UHR=0.952, p=0.019], and perfect adherence of antiretroviral drugs (ARV) [UHR=0.668, p=0.004] positively influenced patient survival time. Patient’s gender [male UHR=1.633, p2 in reference to between 18.5-2 [AHR=1.65, p=0.847] and BMI above 25 kg/m2 [AHR=0.861, p=0.847], level of education [lower AHR=0.931, p=0.209], patients’ gender [male AHR=1.884, p=0.19] and ARV adherence [perfect AHR=1.393, p=0.498]. In conclusion, HIV severity, level of education, ARV adherence and patients' gender were significant predictors of survival time. In addition, none of the patient's characteristics predicted survival time in the multivariate Cox model. Therefore, this study recommends to the government of Kenya to spearhead the development of policy framework for the provision of regular screening services for the male population to avoid late diagnosis and interventions of HIV/AIDS disease.
VL  - 7
IS  - 2
ER  -

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